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February 7, 2010 Life After Trading? A good friend of mine was recently let go at a major trading operation in Chicago where he was supervising a group of bond traders. I had a chance to pick his brain a bit about what's "out there" and, since he's got an excellent handle on generational turnings (after Strauss & Howe) what he sees on the road ahead is useful. Following the interview, be sure and flip over to this week's ChartPack where the 'end of the world' is slowly resolving into view...
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February 6, 2010 It's What? The big snowstorm on the East Coast is causing people to chill out this weekend. The national weather service has continued its blizzard warning through 10 PM this evening. Some places outside of Washington/Baltimore could get upwards of 30 inches of snow. Yes, it will go into the record books. No, it's not unusual for records to be set somewhere every few winters. It's just when it hits the Washington area, it gets more press in the MSM. The word for this 'phenomena' is: winter.
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January 31, 2010 The "Art" of Social Engineering I have only written about Directorate 153's social engineering mission a couple of times previously; once when its existence could be hypothecated in the wake of September 9/11 (Peoplenomics #6, Dec. 1, 2001) and we covered the hypothetical hiring of a new fellow at the Directorate - an economics/applicant named simply Rick in our September 5, 2004 report #150. As you'll recall, we hypothecated that a new head of strategic economic planning for the world's hidden perpetrators of 'peaceful war' had been hired from senior global banking ranks in order to ensure social engineering and orchestration of global banking went smoothly. In today's report we look at how that project has been going or late (hypothetically) and look ahead to future inflection points where terrorism/social distracters may again be desired by the PTB. Let me emphasize again, this is all hypothetical.
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January 30, 2010 The "January Effect" There's an olde saying down on Wall Street: "As goes January, so goes the Year." and when I popped open the Yahoo Finance site this morning to pull out how this January had done, there it was in glorious black and white: the Dow opened the year at 10,430.69 and then closed Friday of this week at 10,067.33...a drop of 363.36 points.
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January 24, 2010 Markets Rolling Over? In a number of hobbies, I've watched an amazing number of people mistake blind dumb luck for skill and daring. Ditto the markets. Still, my March 29, 2009 report "Me Bullish? Where to Play the 401(k) Game" (Peoplenomics #395) was nearly perfect. A good entry point would have gotten one in around 7,500 on the Dow. Similarly, if one had read Peoplenomics #436B January 2, 2010 and started to accumulate put options as I'm doing in my personal account, the entry might have been short from the 10,600 range if your intrasession sniping skills were sharp. This week, an update from Robin Landry and some ideas of where things might go from here. While some weeks we get way off into the weeds, we don't need to talk about market this and market that every week. Big decisions over the long term make more money and disturb sleep less.
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January 23, 2010 Five More to the Wall It has become somewhat of a grim custom around here to put aside the function of fully awakening around here in order to start each Saturday with a recap of the week's actions by FDIC which is trying to manage the banking collapse of the US without setting off bank runs 'per se' as occurred in the 1930's. So we once again begin with the list of banks given their last smokes and sent out to the wall with a blindfold this week...this morning's envelope of the damned, please?
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January 17, 2010 Fight, Flight, and Diaspora With the grim events in the aftermath of Haiti's quake this week, time for us to consider that if the predictive linguistics are correct about more 'terra entity' displacement/diaspora to come later this year - as in maybe up to two billion people moving about - we ought to consider how to cope with adrenaline-driven outcomes. What we'll be talking about in this week's report is how to preplan for 'unthinkable' events. Just like fire departments have 'running cards' - where fire responses in big cities are preplanned, so too, in matters of 'personal survival' the six P's are immortal: Proper Planning Prevents Piss-Poor Performance.
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January 16, 2010 Diaspora, Part One As I explained in a couple of special postings to the UrbanSurvival website on Friday, looks like the linguistics about the context change are squaring up to be earth/terra related and over the next year we should be expecting no less than six 'great quakes' although the interpretation is difficult since there are some very, very hard processing and interpretation issues that go with closely-spaced events of an archetypically similar flavor.
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January 10, 2010 Making It to 2012: The Latest "Surprise" Disaster The "Gathering Gloom" has arrived. No, it's not the world waking up this spring to find food production is falling apart. That one's easy to see coming in the wake of record cold and possibly large-scale floods in the Mississippi Valley to follow along with drought and groundwater disappearing in California and Arizona. Easy stuff that: Obvious and evident to anyone who even pretends to scan headlines looking for economic drivers. No, the surprise is the additional 7.65 million people I estimate will lose their jobs between now and the end of August (at the latest). That'll be shocker. So, if you're pondering buying a new home 'on the cheap', you might want to factor my logic into your decision-making processes. Warm up the calculator...George is at it again...
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January 9, 2010 Checkbook Republic Rules Ah, fine stuff to begin the coffee with: Word in the NY Times this week that a whole series of legal decisions are piling up that will make it easier for corporations, unions, and above all special interest groups to buy their legislative agendas. Why we don't just subcontract congress out to eBay is beyond me. At least there we'd see who the high bidder is and be able to leave negative feedback, know what I'm sayin'?
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January 2, 2010 A Simple Tactical Trading Plan for 2010 and $1,000 Having outlined the case for P-3 to arrive in 2010, the next problem is "OK, what to do with that information?" Right. No point having a sense of the future if it is not the basis for appropriate action. So we begin this week with a discussion of my favorite topics when comes time to invest -- "casino theory" -- and an important corollary I call "index theory". By combining the two into a short "Options School" I think you'll find my personal trading plan for 2010 to be pretty interesting in the potential for even a small investor like me. So we begin by exploring 'casino theory'...
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January 1, 2010 Timing P-3 Down Although the Santa Claus rally has been a fine 'capper' on the bounce from the March low last year (yeah, 2009 is now 'last year') it may not continue too much longer says my friend Robin Landry who manages a large number of accounts from his office in Shawnee, Oklahoma. But, before we get into his outlook, I want to share with you my #1 favorite chart because it has been a superb 'truth detector' when trying to figure out how this "Second Depression" we're now in has been working out. The idea is simple: If you took an equal number of dollars and put them in three averages: The Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite in early 1999, how would the resulting chart look compared to the period 1929 through 1939?
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December 27, 2009 Emerging Language, Emergent War? Two items on the plate this fine holiday weekend: The emergence of a new language structure and where it could lead over time along with obstacles to its evolution. Then we'll do a short update on the odds of Israel attacking Iran in the coming month, or so. The first is interesting to explore because as interdisciplinary studies increase as a function of complexity, the difficulties of multiple meanings arise in compounding fashion. The second is worth noting because of all the predictive linguistic warnings about what could result from a coordinated attack on US forces on a subregional basis beyond the initial theater of engagement.
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December 26, 2009 Shall We Make Some Money, Now? It's the time of the year when I ask some really simple questions about how this year has been on our personal financial statement and look ahead to next year with an eye toward making things even better. So I thought it would be of general interest to look at how various asset classes have done over the past year and make some educated guesses about what 2010 will hold. Spreadsheets at the ready... Let's toss some numbers about before we get into the Saturday morning dose of current headlines and cynicism, shall we?
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December 20, 2009 Short Term Values, Capital Preservation, 2 Several readers have asked me for an update to the August 30 Peoplenomics report (#418) in which I expressed growing skepticism of the rally which was then in the are of Dow 9,544. What is difficult to find in investing are clear signals when one should flee from a particular investment and see something else. So this week I'll pick on a couple of markets (gold and stocks) and show you just how close I think both are to the 'fight-or-flight' technical level. Along the way, some discussion of an indicator that very few people seem to use anymore - exponential curves. Before we can do that, however, a little math and long-term perspective is necessary. Not hard stuff - unless you were math-averse in school - in which case we'll make this as painless as possible. As usual, this is not trading advice, and I assume you've read our comprehensive disclaimer here. True, that's like holding you a lit stick of dynamite, and saying "Now - you hold this....while I go hide behind that rock..." But, that's how today's litigious world operates, isn't it? So we'll start with you holding a chart and me lighting it like so....
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December 19, 2009 Is It Really That Bad? ' Tis the season to be jolly..." Yada, yada, yada. The inbox loads up this time of year with people screaming "Doomster! I don't care if there are millions of people unemployed...things are not that bad and you're a doomster Ure." Yeah, sure, you betcha. Why just in the past day or two we've only had global climate talks implode, seven banked refried by FDIC, and if that's not enough, gold has dropped from a shade under $1,220 an ounce December 3rd down to intraday lows under $1,100. This morning I'll try to put all my personal prejudices aside ("World's going to hell in a hand basket!") and try my very best to spin things in a MainStreamMedia kind of way so as not to jolt too many people out of their comfort zones. I'm making this heroic effort in order to be rebranded from 'doomster' to a more seasonal "For he's a jolly good fellow" instead of my more accurate descriptor here lately which is....
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December 13, 2009 13 Acres and Independence Part 8: Small Farm Economics A couple of readers have asked for a more detailed explanation of goat ranching, since that's our second cash crop; the first being a selective cut of timber on the property that netted about $14,000. "How does it work? Can you really make money at it?" The short answer is it's not too complicated, but there are design patterns behind the scenes that require a good understanding. This week, a look at farm business models, crop or output selection, and how to go about these things in a reasonable fashion.
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December 12, 2009 Reports from the Field Anyone with a calculator, magnifying glass, and a sense of humor can figure out that the Dow - which closed this week at 10,471.50 compared with last week's close of 10,388.90, gained a under 87 points for all the hubbub. However it's more difficult to put into context what this really means to an investor's outlook. The two main scenarios I'm watching are the possibility of a sideways market through March and then a long slow decline or a drop down early in the new year toward the March '09 lows and then one last moon shot toward the 14,000 range by late July or early August when a whole constellation of forecasts start to come together in a most ugly way. That includes linguistics, astroecon studies, and a number of major cycles.
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December 6, 2009 Support of Bernanke? Why, sure! I offer a detailed answer to the questions readers sent in asking "What are you smoking?" in response to the Saturday note that I'd have to go along with recommending Ben Bernanke for another term as Federal Reserve Chairman. Don't misunderstand; I'm haven't been turned into a cheerleading Fed supporter. But this week, let's get real about what managing the Fed really means in terms of continuity, predictability and an operating plan...and ask the Bernanke critics "Where's the concrete alternative operating plan, staff, strategy, and political will behind it to prevent a global meltdown that only a madman would promote?" Besides. how much does it matter who's at the controls when the global economic airplane is likely in an unrecoverable spin?
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December 5, 2009 Beware The Ides of March It begins almost like one of those 'good news/bad news' jokes. I have good news for you in the sense that the market put in a nominal 2009 high this week, but the bad news is that when the party ends, the structural problems which are being papered over (along with the painting of the tape and the prohibition on using common sense in conjunction with P/E ratios) will still be necessarily reckoned with. Although I don't offer specific financial advice, there are multiple data points which bear watching; most of which ought to be figured into market pricing and individual investment expectations. We'll start with our calendars out and the latest from the FDIC...
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November 29, 2009 Fingerprints of the PTB Don't know if you have noticed the same disturbing trend I have, but when one sits back on a cool morning with no work to think about and reflect over a hot cuppa joe, I get a growing sense that less and less of what's being 'piped' into human melodramatic consciousness can be trusted. It starts as a feeling, but when I started start to add up all the Big Lies of the past few years, the number became impressive; 9/11, the supposed naturally occurring flu, the 'need to war', and more recently, climategate. This week, we review a few of these Big Lies and ask an almost impossible question: "Why?" The answers are few, but we can at least begin framing a large and potentially life-altering answer set.
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November 28, 2009 Dancing With Disaster The little 154-point hiccup in the Dow, or the slightly larger 1.73% drop in the NASDAQ Friday should not be the focus of any sane investors thinking this weekend. Not that sanity and investing belong in the same paragraph, but if we were to go there, what would be our 'right focus'? On December 7th we'll get out next look at the G.19 Consumer Debt figures - and we should have a lot more clear idea on whether there's green shoots, or not. If the Consumer Debt levels off - or increases - then there is hope of a muddle-through outcome for several more months.
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November 22, 2009 Increasing Your Personal Efficiency Without going overboard into the Human Potential Movement, I thought this week I would address a question I get asked with surprising frequency: "How do you get so much done?" The answer is really pretty simple - yet it's one of those invisible decisions that people generally don't spend any time thinking through. I have at least 14-weeks a year of productivity (based on 40-hour workweeks) that most people don't have the sense to reclaim as their own. Since the holiday period is when many people get enough time off work to spend at least a little on introspection, I thought this week I'd share a few thoughts on how we can each increase our 'personal efficiency'. I don't claim to be perfect at it - just a little better than average. But thanks to the fact that effort compounds over time almost like interest, it's a worthwhile study. We then apply this to some disturbing and quite possibly irreversible trends in today's headlines.
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November 21, 2009 Global Climate Change - A Scam? A newly circulating 60 MB ZIP file has all kinds of incriminating information in it - on how schools are using climate change to build reputations and revenue - and how climate data has been fudged - as a WTO-type agenda by the shadowy PowersThatBe. Link to download the file included. Plus - Fort Hood follow-up...
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November 15, 2009 Life Through Business Model Glasses "Life Through Business Model Glasses" Ever wonder what would cause a person (like me) to ask "What's the Woo-Woo business model worth?" Here's the cause...Ever since I got serious about trying to understand business back when I was a newscaster, I'd come to a working conclusion that almost all human activity may be viewed at some level as competition between business models. Whether you talk about religion, government, family, or more conventionally-structured businesses like the traditional plumber six blocks over, everyone it seems is running a business model - although most will deny it's their sole motivation. Using this approach, we can not only develop clearer focus in our personal lives, but also gain understanding through questions we never thought to ask before. Like: "What's a UFO worth?" and "How big is the woo-woo business?"
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November 14, 2009 2012: The Dangerous Convergence My report today deals with four converging data sets which could spell disaster for humans at an unimaginable level - in fact, unlike the movie 2012 and it's 'neutrinos increasing' indicator, this one is a bunch of hard data sets with potentially horrific implications - and it's all quite real. Because of it's content, this report available only to Peoplenomics.com subscribers since subscribers are the ones that keep the servers up. Also, when I post this kind of material on the free side, I typically get flooded with emails from non-subscribers and I'm not here to debate the general public. The data speaks for itself when assembled in a particular way.
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November 8, 2009 The Single Person's Marketing Plan Common economic wisdom is that a home is the most important investment most folks make, but I respectfully disagree. I'd suggest it's the partner you choose to put in the home that is really the biggest investment you make in Life since you can lose money faster than any market in history through the mechanism of divorce. Half to 65% net worth - or more- can disappear in an instant. And you thought stocks in the 'pink sheets' were risky? See this divorce rate chart. A number of subscribers who are single have asked for advice, so I thought it might be useful to apply some basic marketing principles to finding a significant other. This may seem a little irreverent here - and to be sure the line between sociopath and social butterfly is a thin one - but it won't be the first time one of these in-depth reports has stepped over a line or two. Such is the danger of inquiry.
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November 1, 2009 2012 - The Bigger Picture Think you have a handle on 2012? Ha! Not hardly! On Tuesday night of this week, Cliff High will be rolling out his research - along with some spiffy graphics on his site www.halfpasthuman.com as part of an interview on the Jeff Rense show. We will hold off on "the Single Person's Marketing Plan" until next week because I wanted to spend some time this weekend bridging the gap between the historical basis of 2012 - and the critical issues of survival of possible events in that timeframe. What do the Dogon People and their stories about Sirius (Later Osiris in Egyptology) have to do with the breakdown of the former Soviet Union? And what does that have to do with economics? Get ready to grab your blinders firmly...you ain't gonna like this at all.
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October 25, 2009 "Economic Island Theory" While we wait patiently to see which big commercial real estate outfit will be the first to hit banko, what the public reaction to the Obama declaration of national medical state of emergency and so forth will be, we're at a fine point to consider one of my pet economic theories. I call it "Economic Island Theory" and it works with countries, states, cities, neighborhoods, and people right here on your block. If you want to understand who has power, Economic Island Theory is the ticket...no fancy formulas needed. Job, home, and Life counseling - all in one byte-sized theory. More For Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE
October 18, 2009 "Channeling" The Future No woo-woo to this: A surprising amount about 'the future' can be inferred about a specific point in time by merely projecting present events. This week, we'll use a few simple tools that TV assignment editors use and see what we can infer about a particular date in the future - October 26th, in our case because that's when the predictive linguistics 'go hottest' - and then see if we can block out a reasonable set of expectations about how the local evening news ought to look on that day... More For Subscribers Subscription Information
October 11, 2009 The Day The Dollar Died Like it or not, I think it's time to start thinking the unthinkable about the future of the US dollar. In a paper "Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Strategic Warning", Jack Davis of the Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis makes a key distinction assessing "substantive uncertainty and strategic warming", pointing out that while "Identifying when, where, and how a declared or potential adversary will strike the United States directly, mount a challenge to US interest abroad, or make a weapons breakthrough is the highest priority of the DI’s current intelligence effort..." there's a different kind of threat - the strategic variety - given what I reckon to be underweighting in financial contingency plans. As Davis points out "A thoughtful senior policy official has opined that most potentially devastating threats to US interests start out being evaluated as unlikely." Do we now find ourselves in a world where the strategic failure of the dollar is being "evaluated as unlikely"?
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October 4, 2009 A Bad MoM, Real About Real Estate, and Depression Era Myths Three parts to this week's report: Part 3 will deal with the very worrisome report from HPH modelspace which was posted on the UrbanSurvival site on Saturday. Part 2 reviews some of the macro "myths" were that came out of the first Depression and how the systematic dismembering of those hard-learnt lessons set the stage for the great pain yet to come here in the second Depression; which brings us to Part 1 - a much larger/further housing price collapse, and massive (and rising) unemployment. It's unfortunately simple when you look at implied housing prices resulting from even modest declines in aggregate loan-to-value (LTV) rates...
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September 27, 2009 Competing Uses of Cash A number of readers have asked me (at various times over the past six months) “I have X dollars in my in my Y account…what should I do with them? This week we’ll start trying to get some ideas about where the economy is going by considering the views of those very bright people who work for the government (JASON Defense Advisory Group) which we tripped over in our circuitous adventure to the fringes of woo-woo areas last week. From there we will hit a number of other government agencies and see what their vision of the future looks like. (Hint: Screwier than yours or mine, which is not very comforting…). Ultimately we’ll draw some conclusions about the Zero Delusion, that once uniquely Zimbabwean monetary disease that spreading faster than swine flu on a formerly healthy Navy ship. We begin by developing....
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Subscription Information eptember 20, 2009 Doctrine Issues In The War Across Time This week, we step back from our usual fare of non-traditional economics (of the sort that recognizes the cyclical nature of economies, population demographics and resource depletion rates, since such topics are taboo among peer-reviewed cowards) to expand our vistas to just beyond the frontiers of the science we know to where some recent developments bring into focus the possibility of a supra-normal reality, thanks to a contributor who has gone to great lengths to protect his identity. This week we'll digest enough data to trigger a curious mind to look at seemingly inexplicable events in today's headlines and examine the possibility that there is - as Arthur Conan Doyle called it - a bigger game afoot. Behind all that most humans accept 'entertainment' there may be a far more elegant yet troubling explanation for scores of 'unexplainable events' right before our eyes, 9/11, UFO's, the whole spectrum: It's a battle with roots in Roswell, Philadelphia and tests Able and Baker in the Pacific, chemtrails and all the rest. And it has tentacles reaching past today forward a thousand tomorrows. Welcome to the ultimate in asymmetric warfare: The War Across Time.
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September 13, 2009 How America Was Hijacked: The Corporate Coup d' Etat We begin with a discussion of the pricing mechanisms that have facilitated the corporate coup in America especially via the Supreme Court as evidenced in a case returned to a lower court last week that seems destined to further expand corporate supremacy over humans. We'll demonstrate using options pricing theory how the corporate will always trumps regular humans in government policy-making. Our second article projects future relative values of gold, stocks, and real estate for the next couple of years - some simple investment choices become evident. Then on the lighter side, a discussion of hyperchroniacs and how that may actually have some solid grounding in science. Except for one little catch: It implies the world getting weirder than it already is. But first, let's go buy us some government...
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September 6, 32009 Free Satellite TV: Building an Information Platform Not to be a stick in the mud, but as much as I like to watch television as much as the next guy, I'm definitely in the came of not wanting to pay for it. At various times, we've had the pay TV services and it gets to be spendy - month after month and in these uncertain times promising to pay even $50 for an assortment of news and business channels mounts up. Over the usual 2-year commitment, you're talking about as much as a couple of thousand bucks - and in some cases equipment is on top of that. What's a guy to do? One of the answers is "Free-to-air" television. No, you won't find the assortment of stations and no, not much out there that is HD, but that's what NetFlix is for - the occasional good/worthwhile movie. This week's report (since it's a holiday weekend and all) is something other than our normal 'grim' fare of economic outlooks. A simple how-to which can save you a thousand dollars a year and free up 2-hours a day. The grim stuff is in the chart section.
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August 30, 2009 Short Term Values, Capital Preservation First up is a short look at 'immediacy values" from the predictive linguistic work which could impact personal and business expectations between now and when the next "Shape of Things To Come report is issued around September 15th. The good news is that while some things look better, other prospects have grow more ominous. Then we'll consider some of the recent developments in the market and whether it's time to get back to bearish since I became bullish in late March (Issue #395: "Me Bullish? Where to Play the 401(k) Game).
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ugust 23, 2009 S-Curves and SOC's In Saturday's free report on the UrbanSurvival site, I made a passing reference to the implications of S-curves in the study of bank failures in the US. This week, a longer term look, using the same technique. And once we've got a grasp of that, the next issue would be "What to do?" about it. Then, since we're all about new ways of looking at markets, why not apply S-curves to the recent Dow, over the past 10-years or so, and see where that points? Got'cher Cray warmed up? We're off....er...maybe that's not the right word, since people have been applying that to me for years, although I insist they are incorrect...
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August 16, 2009 Popcorn at the Train Wreck Three items on the agenda this week. One is to address a reader who wondered how I could say something to the effect that 'government was doing a pretty good job, all things considered' when I also happen to think we're in the midst of dropping into the depths of the second depression. Good question...I'll see if I can explain. Secondly, there's a 70+ slide PowerPoint that you can download as a PDF which was given to the East Texas self-organizing collective meting in Tyler, TX Saturday afternoon. Great fajitas and fellowship. And then, there's the matter of what's it's gonna be as we are now in that August 16-22 window where something becomes a prequel to events to follow over the course of this fall. So grab some popcorn, we've got a front row section reserved for us at the economic train wreck.
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August 13, 2009 East Texas Peoplenomics/SOC Meet-Up Information and directions to our Saturday (8/15/2009, Tyler, TX) gathering...
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August 9, 2009 Which Critical Path? We are now less than two weeks from the August 22 'hot date' in the predictive linguistics work from Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com and it's as good a time as any to have a little chalk-talk about how this fall could work out. The earthquakes in Baja, occurring with almost uncanny precision as expected, and the following 6.1 in Japan fulfilled all of our 'duality' expectations, so we're left with a very hard set of linguistics to deal with for the fall. So dire are the possibilities that I told my son, who starts his EMT re-certification program in September in the Pacific Northwest, that he may not be able to complete it. Moreover, there's one critical path into our future that could result in him hiking to Texas (from Washington state) as a wandering medical practitioner in 2010. Action point:, He should pay particular attention to the EMT-W content on the side. If you're not familiar with EMT-W (sometimes WEMT) curriculum, it's designed for first responders in a wilderness setting where you're basically on your own. It's one thing to save a life with 4-minutes response times, one minutes from an AED, and withy 150-drugs and a 12-lead ECG 7-minutes out. It's entirely another when there are no communications and you've got only a trail first-aid pack, OTC medications, and a good pocket knife. From an emergency medicine standpoint, we may all be at either extreme of that spectrum within a year; such is the breadth of critical path possibilities.
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August 2, 2009 5-Years Out and 10 Days in October Now that last week's report on how banks are, in effect, swapping write-downs and garnering tax credits as their reward for crashing the housing market, we can put enough pieces of the Great Puzzle of Life on the table, using diverse source materials, that a kind of 'rough out' (as some tradesmen would describe it) of the future can be tabled. When I tell you that this 'rough out' draws on diverse backgrounds, everything from Federal Reserve notes on the economy, news clips from major media including the BBC and even old UFO-studies books, don't be alarmed. Nor should my looking to the recent "The Shape of Things to Come", the follow-on to the ALTA series from www.halfpasthuman.com, which only a few people have figured is connected to the much earlier book "The Shape of Things to Come by H.G. Wells." Grab your tinfoil hat. We're off this week on a major dot-connecting mission, which should things collapse as expected this fall, might be a dim star to steer by on what for most will be very dark times indeed.
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July 26, 2009 The Ugly Foreclosure Game A lot of readers have been asking lately "Are banks really losing money on real estate they foreclose on?" My answer: probably not. If you thought the derivatives game was hot, let me bring you up to speed on how to banks can get rich foreclosing. "How Not To Lose Your Butt In Real Estate 101". Everything from basic use of leverage to how to buy dirt cheap. No 2-hour infomercial, either. Just some core ugly concepts.
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July 19, 2009 Calm Before the (Cytokine) Storm This week’s Peoplenomics report is a little outside of our usual economics perspective but worth sharing since I’ve been doing a lot of personal research this past week into the upcoming expected outbreak of virulent novel/swine flu in the USA this fall and winter. Because it’s expected to result in a fair number of fatalities, and since I need all the readers I can get, I’ve put together a reasonably comprehensive look at what to expect and some personal courses of action when (more than if) swine flu comes to your neighborhood. This is not medical advice – for that, see your health care professional (or local shaman). This is a survey of what’s out there to be learned and some thoughts on how it may be individually applied. My market outlook as usual accompanies in this week’s Chart Pack.
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July 12, 2009 Some Grand Strategy for Average Folks Yes, trying to figure out whether you should bail out of your 401(k) and pay off your home or your vacation property is a damn tough question. A far more complicated one, in fact, than most people will ever bother to think through. But in the interest of getting ahead in the long run, let's roll up our sleeves and consider it this week. Be warned though: This is real work and you'll want to go over this with your financial advisor because I am NOT a financial advisor...just a fellow with a little street sense and a fair to middling grasp of economics - and the future - which many advisors seem to lack. Remember who got this decline right? If your advisor had you putting money into stocks at the top in either late 1999 or mid 2007, you might want to hit the phone book, so to speak. Ready to get some work done?
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July 5, 2009 Toward a Personal Constitution Two great warnings about 'rights' in America have stuck with me over the years. The first was that "Rights are usually taken away from those least able to defend them first..." Something I expect First People on this continent would have no reservations about endorsing. The second thing to strike me is the 'extensibility' of the phrase "When guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns." It extends to thoughts like "When only special interests have access, only special interests have laws." I'm worried that with the recent blatant ignoring of the Will of the People expressed on bailouts and such to congress, that our beloved Constitution is in great peril. I hear the social contract tearing. Is it time to flag Old Glory upside down - as we're certainly in 'distress'. Enough so that I've started working on my own "Personal Constitution" as a portable back-up should the one that keeps the States 'united" fail in the midst of economic turmoil in the next year or two. Should that arrive, whether by terrorism, economic collapse, or an electric grid-killing solar flare, the relevance of the Constitution may disappear as the central government can only exists so long as it can exact tribute from We the People. I love the Constitution, but since it's being hacked up by fits and starts, it may be time to think the once unthinkable.
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une 28, 2009 Marching to the Wall Have a blindfold and cigarette handy? The next year or so will see lots of people and entities being 'marched to the wall'. (Thanks; gotta light?). Our biggest problem is who to march out first, but that easily solved thanks to a source of mine that keeps track of the Gnomes of Greenwich who have California lined up to march out next. California defaults, the Gnomes make billions, and guess who is left behind to mourn? Then shortly thereafter will come 'small investors' who can see the wall, but can't break out of the lock-step march towards it, either... Ten-hut! Forward march!
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June 21, 2009 An Update From Directorate 153 Back in the days when my friend Cliff's 'web bot
project' was known only by the moniker 'the think tank' we were able
to piece together a really curious concept. Bear in mind that
this was in the weeks following 9/11, the American 587 crash and the
attack on 'house or assemblage' which was all a 'done deal' by the
time Issue #6 of Peoplenomics put bytes to screens on 6
December 2001. That report (
which is available to everyone free at this link) was
significant because of a couple of things. First - based on
the linguistic clues available to me at that time, I was able to
posit the existence of 'action arms' of the PowersThatBe, and
secondly that whether its foundations were as a renegade directorate
of Britain's MI-6, makes very little difference. The powers at
the very top of the economic food chain are orchestrating a whole
new world and you're on the verge of being deemed a 'useless eater."
When John Perkins' book
Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
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June 14, 2009 Obama's Reconstruction Problem This may sound a little odd - to be talking about the
reconstruction plans of the Obama Administration, since there hasn't
been a big enough disturbance to the economy to require any
'reconstructing' yet. But, since I have a few clues as to what
will be in the next predictive linguistics update, and because the
second leg down in the derivatives disaster will likely be pulling
into view before September, I figure it's as good a time as any to
consider how America's future could work out. In the process,
I'm guided to some extent by
After Collapse: The Regeneration of Complex Societies
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June 6, 2009 Depression or Recession? This week, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market rally a bit more, with some softness to follow come month-end, and then one or possibly two more short moves up into either mid-July or mid-August. And then, I'm figuring the stock market will have completed its setup for another one of those 'once-in-a-lifetime' declines, which seem to be coming with some regularity. This week, a bit of detail on how past Depressions and sharp market drops have looked, and some amplification and detail on my very different way of looking at things'. We'll start with.....
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May 31, 2009 Time to Kill the Advertising Industry Want to do something revolutionary? Which if done at one fell swoop would reduce pollution, dramatically reduce crime of many sorts, and at the same time would defuse the mass consumption paradigm while reducing the public susceptibility to political jingoism and persuasion group manipulation. You see, the truth of the matter is that excess consumption and shoddy products is at the core of today's business paradigm. It's why Detroit hasn't turned out the 'million mile car' yet, but Kenworth (PACCAR) builds that level of quality into trucks every day. It's why car styles change from year-to-year in order to hype 'novelty' and 'position' since 4-wheels and a motor has been around more than a hundred years. So pour a fresh cuppa Joe and let's get real about this...starting with...
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M ay 24, 2009Nothing To Fear But History This week my report will focus on a couple of historical points which folks seem to overlook. One is the comparison of bank failures in the 1930's to bank failures of the present day (Oh, and it's worse, BTW than the Great Depression already even if you don't count the latest three closures last week) and the other is the 500-year 'hemisphere cycle' of history. So get out your calculator and let's see what's hidden in plain sight: Depression Two is now well underway; albeit cleverly hidden in plain view for any thinking person to see...
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May 17, 2009
The "Voices" & Woo-Woo Meet Serious Investing I was genuinely surprise last week to learn about the number of people who hear "voices" in their head so I got to thinking "Gee, does this have any implications for investing? After a little research into such diverse are as a use of microwaves to generate specific 'voices' with subject's heads, I've concluded that not only is there something (good) to be said about "tinfoil hats", but in addition, there are some implications about investing and some things you may wish to consider trying which could influence your own investment and whole life decision-making processes. It is, as this week's headline implies, where "woo-woo" meets investing and where we might really profit from rethinking the old computer term GIGO...
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May10, 2009 Is the Bubble Over Yet? We seem to be hearing that maybe, at long last, there is some light at the end of the tunnel that's not another trainload of economic mayhem coming our way. Don't believe it for a minute. I'll admit only that the Dow, which closed last week at 8,574.65 has put on an impressive rally since March 2, when it was about 1,948 points lower...6,626.94. But are we really out of the woods yet? Ha! I think you already know the answer to this, but let's revisit an indicator I've used in the past to see if the world is in any danger of going back to making sense any time soon. It's called the....
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May 6, 2009 11:20 AM Special Midweek Trading Update Click below for access.
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May 3, 2009 The Case for Client-Server Government Before we launch into the two main items of this week's report, namely the concept of installing a client-server architecture on the federal government and a deeper analysis of bank failures that makes the case we're really much closer to a 'clean replay' of the 1930's Depression than MainStream Media (MSM) let's on, I'd like to begin with a huge "Thank you!" to the subscribers who keep the IndependenceJournal.com, UrbanSurvival.com, and Peoplenomics.com web sites going via their subscriptions. With this weekend's report, Peoplenomics is now 400 issues along...so if you count back 400 weeks that's when our first edition hit - October 19, 2001. The focus of that first issue, written just a few short weeks after 9/11? Two items that are very much current today: The first real discussion of my "systems perspective of life" and "Clash of Civilizations? Cyclical Aspects of Major Religions at 1,000 and 1,500 years..." Back in 2001 when Peoplenomics got started, I wanted to write something that would be a useful 'look-ahead' source news and financial analysis. Thanks to the predictive linguistics work of Cliff at HalfPastHuman.com and more than 13-years of major market journalism by moi, I think Peoplenomics has hit the mark more often than not and we've been far enough ahead of the MainStreamMedia as to make it almost humorous. So it's with some considerable pleasure I'll begin this week's report with a discussion of how the current flu scare makes an even stronger the case for modeling our physical government after client-server architecture topologies in computing....
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April 26, 2009 10XCSN Redux, Best Depression Businesses, and Pandemic Preps Readers of the (free) www.urbansurvival.com site have been pondering the meaning of 10XCSN since I first mentioned it in early October 2008. In this week's report subscribers get to see what that was all about plus a little more insight into the web bot project. From there, we move on to assessing economic impacts of a massive pandemic, and we'll finish up this week's report with a discussion of how to find a good business to be in during this Second Depression. Mask up, glove up, pick a bale of cotton - it's time to rock & roll...
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April 19, 2009: The Really Long View of Investing Although I gave up cigar smoking several decades back, if there's a mindset to be in for this week's report, it'd be the fresh cup of coffee, a cigar, and being in no particular hurry, since we have a lot so much to cover. Over in the ChartPack section, we'll be pondering the meaning of the pending Armstrong Turn date. Here, we'll be asking a few questions about hidden archeology, which in case you're wondering, may have a lot more to do with how modern-day investing works than you might think. And we'll get into the future of the web bot project and a couple of thoughts on what it's like to touch the future. So clip the end off that virtual stogie and let's get to it starting with...
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April 12, 2009 Guest Perspective: Stephen Swaim's Longwave Economic Model Although it may be easy to pass off my particular 'take' on the economy as a marketing man gone over-the-edge at times, it may surprise you to learn that there's a low key group of folks who have been working on the problem of long wave economic collapse since the mid 1990's when a bunch of us who 'live 10-minutes in the future' held serious discussions about it on a list server run by the University of Colorado. It was a great crowd: My deflationist friend Jas Jain was there, TheBondDube, and a few dozen others that contributed on a regular basis. One poster in particular, whose posts always made sense (i.e. I agreed with most of his positions), was a fellow by the name of Stephen Swaim. His 'day job', if you will, is he is an Ohio attorney specializing in tax litigation with an emphasis on real property tax issues. His undergrad work was at Miami University, then Washington & Lee ('78) for the law degree, and then his CPA certification in '82. I often refer to him as my 'consigliore' as his advice is almost always spot on. This week, I'm pleased to have convinced him to publicly reveal some of what we have spent hours and hours talking about: A long wave economic perspective that incorporates not just the formulaic approach of conventional economystics, but the practical view that "Ooops! Maybe cycles are real, too..." It's with some satisfaction I offer you the following...
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April 5, 2009 LifeLoops: Living Well, In Spite Of.... In many of the weekly Peoplenomics reports, I pick a single topic and delve into it in some depth. But, this weekend we have a lot more ground to cover than usual, so I got to thinking "What's the overarching concept that ties all this together?" What's on the plate? Well, for openers, there's the usual "Which way for the market, next?" Following that we've got a major web bot / predictive linguistics hit developing with muckers/amok and the developing sense of 'surreal' that will get to the point of paralyzing people sometime over the next year or so. Closely coupled, there's the matter of getting control of your 'framing/reference' systems that either confine or liberate your thinking, and following all that we get into timing the purchase of real estate in these record low rates, a fine point or two about gardens, and as it all that isn't enough, I'll fill you in on the alpha test plans for the 'crop circle spinning software' that my friend Cliff has been working on, and which you, if all goes according to plan, will be able to take part in testing. So as I scratched my head this morning I got to thinking "What's a broad enough headline to take in this wide range of topics. And then it hit me: This is all about "Living well, in spite of..."
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March 29, 2009 Me Bullish? Where to Play the 401(k) Game Short term - yes. Long term - no. But there's a bit of time in between now and next fall's problems. In fact, as I see it, there's a pretty good case to be made that if the market doesn't collapse this coming week for about a one to 1.5 week decline into the week before Easter (which wouldn't surprise me - with a huge rally thereafter) the odds are increasing that the US stock market is about to put on a doozy of a rally which should make it through the 9,500 area and perhaps even as far as 11,200+. And a few of the global markets could be even better. This week let's focus on some things to consider with your 401(k). Not investment advice, just things to noodle and ruminate on as you try to hang on to 'what's left' of your life savings.
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March 22, 2009 The "Singularity" is Going Bust There's a theory that suggests that people have a predisposition to denial or unjustified optimism, which might be labeled a 'save-us gene'. Not specifically religious, per se, the predisposition spread across many cultures is that at some point in (name that) crisis, a new [something will save us] will come along and all will be changed, all wrongs made right, justice restored, balance in the Universe returned, and the good guys will win. I'm not talking religion here, since discussion of religion covers such a wide range/diversity and is largely verboten in the workplace, I'd point to the non-religious 'saves us' concept is making the global boardroom rounds: the "Singularity". This particular 'save-us' concept/belief posits that humanity will get so creative, and so computationally empowered and so quick to market, that bumps in the road (such as our current recession-morphing-into-depression) are just a few formula and code libraries from being solved. But are they? The concept exists, in part, because Business Schools don't teach this one course...
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March 15, 2009 The Year's Toughest Questions Inboxes are funny critters. But since I write about economics and a sort of going-along-to-get-along level of personal preparedness, my inbox seems to attract a tremendous number of questions. Some of them I can answer, some of them I can't. In any event, while I don't offer financial advice, I will go so far as to propose some things you might wish to consider in your own financial and life-planning. So I thought what I needed to do this week was pull out the Top-10 questions and discuss them so you can make your own best call as to what the 'right' course of action is for you, given that everyone has a different set of circumstances and we don't live in a one-size-fits-all world. Let's begin with this one: THE most asked question I get is...
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March 8, 2009 What's Really Causing This Depression In 1938, the federal government held a series of hearings into the causes of the Great Depression of the 1930's. And, no surprise, the outcome of the hearings that made it into the history books was the Keynesian version of things which in effect said that "more government intervention and better intervention" was the 'right' course for government. Of course, since telling an already big government that more government was needed, this was very much like pushing drinks at a drunk. There was, however, a much deeper cause of the Great Depression - which I'll explain in a moment, championed by sound economic professionals, who just didn't preach the right Gospel to the big government choir. In case you haven't noticed, the 'bailouts' that have been passed have about zero job creation power; 3.5 million admits the Obama administration, of of these, some will be counted if jobs are just 'saved' - making accountability all but impossible. But, in case you haven't noticed, the "more government mantra" of the 1930's is being replayed in spades today. But what's really causing this Second Depression may come as a surprise to you...and it's not the move to make District of Columbia residents income tax FREE... But it's sorta related...
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March 1, 2009 That Other Problem in 2012 Lots of readers enjoyed Peoplenomics Issue #389 ("A Steely-eyed Survey of 2012 Prospects") of 2/15/2009. However, after doing a lot more chart work, it turns out that one of my threats for that period may have a little more 'going for it' than I early figured. But even more interesting is the related chart work which I was doing at the time that may give some additional insight into just where present market trends could be taking us. Before we get into that, let's first step back and look at where we are in the Kondratiev economic Long Wave and see how Kondratiev might be improved upon... But first we have received this important warning about gold...
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February 22, 2009 Throw Out "Rules of Engagement" A large number of readers have asked me to opine on 'home defense' during what shapes up linguistically as the 'summer of hell' just ahead and a whole bout of economic collapse to a larger degrees next fall and on into 2010. The requests take various forms, but typically proudly tell me that "I've just bought a (such and such) gun and (xxxx) rounds of ammo...is this a good decision/good planning? Maybe yes, but more likely no, unless you are planning a life of combat and violence in whatever comes. A far better investment for most folks would be Army Manual 3-90 of July 2001 (or later). Its title? Simply "Tactics"...
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February 15, 2009 In one of those 'great minds tracking' kind of things, Cliff over at www.halfpasthuman.com and I have both been putting in time last week looking at prospects for 2012. His approach is to use the telescope afforded by his proprietary predictive linguistics work, while mine is much more conventional, using trend forecasting techniques. As you'd expect, our results are somewhat different, but there's enough 'buzz' coming off language shift, and enough in-your-face trends that could culminate in 2012, that it seems like a good investment of effort to sort out how the d�nouement of the 2012 could work out and then develop at least a framework for personal action should coming events present a hedging opportunity. So we being by defining...
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February 8, 2009 A number of readers have asked for some discussion of whether
'barter systems' will replace "money" as the economic washes up on the rocks of
economic history over the next couple of years. I sincerely wish the complex
future could be reduced to a single concept, like barter, but it can't. Instead,
we'll all face a tapestry of exchange mechanisms - probably quite different from
what we're used to in the current economy - which will be driven by major
fundamental shifts in underlying values at a societal level. What's clear from a
read of Dmitri Orlov's
Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects
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February 1, 2009 Scholarship, Scope, and This Week's You-Know-What I'd be lying if I didn't admit to some degree of envy of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's economic study of the Great Depression because in some ways, it uniquely qualifies him to lead the world's more important monetary authority. But while his economic scholarship may be peachy, there's the ugly matter of its limited scope; I hold that economics is a result of the social contract, a foundational element of it, but that the social self-interests are superior in most regards to just money. I'd point specifically to a passages in "As We Go Marching" by John T. Flynn (Doubleday, 1944):
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January 30, 2009 Special Mid-session Markets Note
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January 25, 2009 Retirement Dream: Escape to the Sea - A Good Idea? The arrival of an email this week about a group planning to do something called 'seasteading' - setting up whole new countries on the high seas, reminded me that I've never tried to summarize my experiences having lived on a 40-foot sailboat on the US West Coast for a bit more than 10-years, although there's plenty of learning to share from the experience. Although there may be something to be considered in the possibility of a 'global coastal event', there's a lot to be had from such a lifestyle...enough so that I could write a longish book on the topic, so pardon this week's report being a bit longish compared to most. Why, the subject of placards alone covers plenty of territory; everything from the sign that "Marriages performed by the Captain are only valid for this weekend" to the more serious (and required on vessels >40') MARPOL compliance placard not to mention the various oil pollution and disposal plaques. So pull up a long glass, me hearty - we're going boating, arghhh. Like other big decisions in life, it's a matter of trade-offs. Hate boating? See the earthquake discussion toward the end...
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January 18, 2009 How Humans Lost Control There's something that's been bugging me ever since my friend The Bond Dude reminded me of it. What he said was that over a long enough period of history, if you have two different rates of return, the higher yield will always swamp the lower yield. Each one dollar of face value on a 10% bond over 20-years compounds out to $6.725 while a 9% rate comes in at just $5.604 per dollar of face value. As you can see, that measly one-tenth of one percent may not sound like much at the time the bonds are issued, but run out over 20-years, it's a huge 20% difference in yield. OK, nothing profound to think about yet, right? Ah, but let's now apply that little compounding trick the question of how humans have lost control of governance to corporations. A little exploration of tax rate differentials suggests we will all, sooner than later, be working for the 'company store'. Sorry, no harm intended, especially if you work in one of those 'in process of being nationalized' banks, it's just that's how the numbers come out. You're just going first.
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January 11, 2009 Strategic Contingencies: Obama's Persian Gulf "Test"? Remember the talk about how an early test of the Obama presidency was expected early on? Those comments which 'came and went' during the presidential campaign might now materialize in real-time later this month. So, in order not to be caught flat-footed by possible future events, we mix up the latest outputs from the predictive linguistics project, dump in a handful of high tech Land Warrioring suitable for a Tom Clancy novel, and then season it with just a spritz of 'collision of civilizations' to come up with a contingency planning framework for a late January 'international crisis' which could become the modern day analog of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Details are for subscribers only, but even for non-subscribers, the personal action points might be: That high gas mileage car may turn out to be a good idea, if indeed Camelot 2 meets Missile Crisis 2 in the waters between Jazireh-ye Qeshm and a little island names Abu Musa.
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January 4, 2009 The Crash Handbook Part 2: What Nobody Wants To Talk About Denial is powerful stuff, so our next task is to blast through some common misconceptions about how closely we are rhyming with events of the (First) Depression and other economic watershed events. I refer to the study of cycles - the periodic waxing and waning of human events that may be driven by, or causative of change. It's the topic "Nobody wants to talk about" in mainstream academics. Using cycle studies, we might speculate about the date a coming World War. Or, we may be able to see some repetition in patterns of malinvestment by 'common folks' in stocks and bonds over innovation cycles. It all adds up to a viable alternative to "pure market dynamics" as those focused hypnotically on quantitative analysis would otherwise have policymakers believe. Invention and innovation, not the application of formulaic obscura, is what creates your future. Be warned that the trance of formulas and symbols is not about your prosperity....
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December 28, 2008 The Crash Handbook Part 1: "Ready Or Not..." The little ebook I wrote called "How to Live on $10,000 a year...or less!" has been incredibly successful. No, it hasn't been stocked by Amazon, nor has it been picked up by a major publishing house. But it's been successful by the number of lives it has changed & improved; things publishers and retailers may give lip service to, but when comes right down to brass tacks in publishing, everyone's got to make a buck, and that's cool. I'm undeterred from my personal mission, however, which is to open people's heads a bit, give them new ways of looking at old problems, and above all remind people that the only wealth that survives death is the bank vault of riches between your ears. If that vault is empty, then Life hasn't been properly lived. So over the course of the coming month or two, we'll step back far enough from the theoretical trading and investment side of Peoplenomics to address the nitty-gritty of "Whatcha gonna do when?" Because that "When" is getting really damned close now.
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December 21, 2008 The Annual Forecast Issue Every year about this time, at least since 2000, I've made it a practice to issue an 'annual forecast' in order that to have a set of expectations against which investment decisions can be benchmarked. To accomplish this, I've used numerous methods in the past include nonlinear trend projection, basic econometric modeling, and even to some extent predictive linguistics. But this year, due to the special nature of the times just ahead I've worked up a new 'graphic modeling' approach that avoids the heavy-duty math and is quite intuitive. Hopefully, you'll enjoy the approach but as we get into it, you'll discover, as I did while doing the research, that the results give a nearly dire outlook for 2009. Not unsurvivable, at least for most, but at the same time it's clear in this modeling exercise that the Depression of the 1930's could look like a 'walk in the park' compared to what's coming.
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came out in 2004 I recommended it most strongly at that time, since
it turns out that while my supposition of a rogue element in world
governance may not have been specifically British (or MI-6), there
were nevertheless long-term economic powers manipulating the world's
over-structure for - what else? - personal power and gain.....by
unelected manipulators of raw power which the Founding Fathers had
tried to structure against. So sorry it hasn't worked
and with Constitutional rights fa9i8ling right and left and the
various 'czars' for this problem of that being appointed, the scope
of the power grab now underway has become so large that most people
can't wrap their head around it. Which is how good sheep are
supposed to behave. The rest of us though? We have a
problem...
.
In order to do this efficiently, I've written up a PowerPoint and I
show you the slides I'd put up in a board room if someone were
foolish enough to ask me to place some bets on how the future's
going to work out. Not foolish because I'd be wrong, but maybe
foolish because who wants to see this coming?
is that barter is not a 'single tool that solves all' - and it's only one of
numerous ways to get those things we all need to hold life together as a
tolerable event sequence. So we begin this week by stepping back to the key
action verb of life: "getting".