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June 28, 2009

June 21, 2009

June 14, 2009

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June 6, 2009

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May 31, 2009

This week my report will focus on a couple of historical points which folks seem to overlook.  One is the comparison of bank failures in the 1930's to bank failures of the present day (Oh, and it's worse, BTW than the Great Depression already even if you don't count the latest three closures last week) and the other is the 500-year 'hemisphere cycle' of history.  So get out your calculator and let's see what's hidden in plain sight:  Depression Two is now well underway; albeit cleverly hidden in plain view for any thinking person to see...

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May 17, 2009

I was genuinely surprise last week to learn about the number of people who hear "voices" in their head so I got to thinking "Gee, does this have any implications for investing?  After a little research into such diverse areas a use of microwaves to generate specific 'voices' with subject's heads, I've concluded that not only is there something (good) to be said about "tinfoil hats", but in addition, there are some implications about investing and some things you may wish to consider trying which could influence your own investment and whole life decision-making processes.  It is, as this week's headline implies, where "woo-woo" meets investing and where we might really profit from rethinking the old computer term GIGO...

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May10, 2009

We seem to be hearing that maybe, at long last, there is some light at the end of the tunnel that's not another trainload of economic mayhem coming our way. Don't believe it for a minute. I'll admit only that the Dow, which closed last week at 8,574.65 has put on an impressive rally since March 2, when it was about 1,948 points lower...6,626.94. But are we really out of the woods yet? Ha! I think you already know the answer to this, but let's revisit an indicator I've used in the past to see if the world is in any danger of going back to making sense any time soon. It's called the....

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May 6, 2009 11:20 AM

Special Midweek Trading Update

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May 3, 2009

Before we launch into the two main items of this week's report, namely the concept of installing a client-server architecture on the federal government and a deeper analysis of bank failures that makes the case we're really much closer to a 'clean replay' of the 1930's Depression than MainStream Media (MSM) let's on, I'd like to begin with a huge "Thank you!" to the subscribers who keep the IndependenceJournal.com, UrbanSurvival.com, and Peoplenomics.com web sites going via their subscriptions. With this weekend's report, Peoplenomics is now 400 issues along...so if you count back 400 weeks that's when our first edition hit - October 19, 2001. The focus of that first issue, written just a few short weeks after 9/11? Two items that are very much current today: The first real discussion of my "systems perspective of life" and "Clash of Civilizations? Cyclical Aspects of Major Religions at 1,000 and 1,500 years..." Back in 2001 when Peoplenomics got started, I wanted to write something that would be a useful 'look-ahead' source news and financial analysis. Thanks to the predictive linguistics work of Cliff at HalfPastHuman.com and more than 13-years of major market journalism by moi, I think Peoplenomics has hit the mark more often than not and we've been far enough ahead of the MainStreamMedia as to make it almost humorous. So it's with some considerable pleasure I'll begin this week's report with a discussion of how the current flu scare makes an even stronger the case for modeling our physical government after client-server architecture topologies in computing....

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April 26, 2009

Readers of the (free) www.urbansurvival.com site have been pondering the meaning of 10XCSN since I first mentioned it in early October 2008. In this week's report subscribers get to see what that was all about plus a little more insight into the web bot project. From there, we move on to assessing economic impacts of a massive pandemic, and we'll finish up this week's report with a discussion of how to find a good business to be in during this Second Depression. Mask up, glove up, pick a bale of cotton - it's time to rock & roll...

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April 19, 2009:

Although I gave up cigar smoking several decades back, if there's a mindset to be in for this week's report, it'd be the fresh cup of coffee, a cigar, and being in no particular hurry, since we have a lot so much to cover. Over in the ChartPack section, we'll be pondering the meaning of the pending Armstrong Turn date. Here, we'll be asking a few questions about hidden archeology, which in case you're wondering, may have a lot more to do with how modern-day investing works than you might think. And we'll get into the future of the web bot project and a couple of thoughts on what it's like to touch the future. So clip the end off that virtual stogie and let's get to it starting with...

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April 12, 2009

Although it may be easy to pass off my particular 'take' on the economy as a marketing man gone over-the-edge at times, it may surprise you to learn that there's a low key group of folks who have been working on the problem of long wave economic collapse since the mid 1990's when a bunch of us who 'live 10-minutes in the future' held serious discussions about it on a list server run by the University of Colorado. It was a great crowd: My deflationist friend Jas Jain was there, TheBondDube, and a few dozen others that contributed on a regular basis. One poster in particular, whose posts always made sense (i.e. I agreed with most of his positions), was a fellow by the name of Stephen Swaim. His 'day job', if you will, is he is an Ohio attorney specializing in tax litigation with an emphasis on real property tax issues. His undergrad work was at Miami University, then Washington & Lee ('78) for the law degree, and then his CPA certification in '82. I often refer to him as my 'consigliore' as his advice is almost always spot on. This week, I'm pleased to have convinced him to publicly reveal some of what we have spent hours and hours talking about: A long wave economic perspective that incorporates not just the formulaic approach of conventional economystics, but the practical view that "Ooops! Maybe cycles are real, too..." It's with some satisfaction I offer you the following...

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April 5, 2009

In many of the weekly Peoplenomics reports, I pick a single topic and delve into it in some depth. But, this weekend we have a lot more ground to cover than usual, so I got to thinking "What's the overarching concept that ties all this together?" What's on the plate? Well, for openers, there's the usual "Which way for the market, next?" Following that we've got a major web bot / predictive linguistics hit developing with muckers/amok and the developing sense of 'surreal' that will get to the point of paralyzing people sometime over the next year or so. Closely coupled, there's the matter of getting control of your 'framing/reference' systems that either confine or liberate your thinking, and following all that we get into timing the purchase of real estate in these record low rates, a fine point or two about gardens, and as it all that isn't enough, I'll fill you in on the alpha test plans for the 'crop circle spinning software' that my friend Cliff has been working on, and which you, if all goes according to plan, will be able to take part in testing. So as I scratched my head this morning I got to thinking "What's a broad enough headline to take in this wide range of topics. And then it hit me: This is all about "Living well, in spite of..."

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March 29, 2009

Short term - yes. Long term - no. But there's a bit of time in between now and next fall's problems. In fact, as I see it, there's a pretty good case to be made that if the market doesn't collapse this coming week for about a one to 1.5 week decline into the week before Easter (which wouldn't surprise me - with a huge rally thereafter) the odds are increasing that the US stock market is about to put on a doozy of a rally which should make it through the 9,500 area and perhaps even as far as 11,200+. And a few of the global markets could be even better. This week let's focus on some things to consider with your 401(k). Not investment advice, just things to noodle and ruminate on as you try to hang on to 'what's left' of your life savings.

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March 22, 2009

The "Singularity" is Going Bust

There's a theory that suggests that people have a predisposition to denial or unjustified optimism, which might be labeled a 'save-us gene'. Not specifically religious, per se, the predisposition spread across many cultures is that at some point in (name that) crisis, a new [something will save us] will come along and all will be changed, all wrongs made right, justice restored, balance in the Universe returned, and the good guys will win. I'm not talking religion here, since discussion of religion covers such a wide range/diversity and is largely verboten in the workplace, I'd point to the non-religious 'saves us' concept is making the global boardroom rounds: the "Singularity". This particular 'save-us' concept/belief posits that humanity will get so creative, and so computationally empowered and so quick to market, that bumps in the road (such as our current recession-morphing-into-depression) are just a few formula and code libraries from being solved. But are they? The concept exists, in part, because Business Schools don't teach this one course...

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March 15, 2009

Inboxes are funny critters. But since I write about economics and a sort of going-along-to-get-along level of personal preparedness, my inbox seems to attract a tremendous number of questions. Some of them I can answer, some of them I can't. In any event, while I don't offer financial advice, I will go so far as to propose some things you might wish to consider in your own financial and life-planning. So I thought what I needed to do this week was pull out the Top-10 questions and discuss them so you can make your own best call as to what the 'right' course of action is for you, given that everyone has a different set of circumstances and we don't live in a one-size-fits-all world. Let's begin with this one: THE most asked question I get is...

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March 8, 2009

In 1938, the federal government held a series of hearings into the causes of the Great Depression of the 1930's. And, no surprise, the outcome of the hearings that made it into the history books was the Keynesian version of things which in effect said that "more government intervention and better intervention" was the 'right' course for government. Of course, since telling an already big government that more government was needed, this was very much like pushing drinks at a drunk. There was, however, a much deeper cause of the Great Depression - which I'll explain in a moment, championed by sound economic professionals, who just didn't preach the right Gospel to the big government choir. In case you haven't noticed, the 'bailouts' that have been passed have about zero job creation power; 3.5 million admits the Obama administration, of of these, some will be counted if jobs are just 'saved' - making accountability all but impossible. But, in case you haven't noticed, the "more government mantra" of the 1930's is being replayed in spades today. But what's really causing this Second Depression may come as a surprise to you...and it's not the move to make District of Columbia residents income tax FREE... But it's sorta related...

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March 1, 2009

Lots of readers enjoyed Peoplenomics Issue #389 ("A Steely-eyed Survey of 2012 Prospects") of 2/15/2009. However, after doing a lot more chart work, it turns out that one of my threats for that period may have a little more 'going for it' than I early figured. But even more interesting is the related chart work which I was doing at the time that may give some additional insight into just where present market trends could be taking us. Before we get into that, let's first step back and look at where we are in the Kondratiev economic Long Wave and see how Kondratiev might be improved upon... But first we have received this important warning about gold...

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February 22, 2009

A large number of readers have asked me to opine on 'home defense' during what shapes up linguistically as the 'summer of hell' just ahead and a whole bout of economic collapse to a larger degrees next fall and on into 2010. The requests take various forms, but typically proudly tell me that "I've just bought a (such and such) gun and (xxxx) rounds of ammo...is this a good decision/good planning? Maybe yes, but more likely no, unless you are planning a life of combat and violence in whatever comes. A far better investment for most folks would be Army Manual 3-90 of July 2001 (or later). Its title? Simply "Tactics"...

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February 15, 2009

In one of those 'great minds tracking' kind of things, Cliff over at www.halfpasthuman.com and I have both been putting in time last week looking at prospects for 2012. His approach is to use the telescope afforded by his proprietary predictive linguistics work, while mine is much more conventional, using trend forecasting techniques. As you'd expect, our results are somewhat different, but there's enough 'buzz' coming off language shift, and enough in-your-face trends that could culminate in 2012, that it seems like a good investment of effort to sort out how the d�nouement of the 2012 could work out and then develop at least a framework for personal action should coming events present a hedging opportunity. So we being by defining...

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February 8, 2009

A number of readers have asked for some discussion of whether 'barter systems' will replace "money" as the economic washes up on the rocks of economic history over the next couple of years. I sincerely wish the complex future could be reduced to a single concept, like barter, but it can't. Instead, we'll all face a tapestry of exchange mechanisms - probably quite different from what we're used to in the current economy - which will be driven by major fundamental shifts in underlying values at a societal level. What's clear from a read of Dmitri Orlov's Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects is that barter is not a 'single tool that solves all' - and it's only one of numerous ways to get those things we all need to hold life together as a tolerable event sequence. So we begin this week by stepping back to the key action verb of life: "getting".

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February 1, 2009

I'd be lying if I didn't admit to some degree of envy of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's economic study of the Great Depression because in some ways, it uniquely qualifies him to lead the world's more important monetary authority. But while his economic scholarship may be peachy, there's the ugly matter of its limited scope; I hold that economics is a result of the social contract, a foundational element of it, but that the social self-interests are superior in most regards to just money. I'd point specifically to a passages in "As We Go Marching" by John T. Flynn (Doubleday, 1944):

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January 30, 2009

Special Mid-session Markets Note

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January 25, 2009

The arrival of an email this week about a group planning to do something called 'seasteading' - setting up whole new countries on the high seas, reminded me that I've never tried to summarize my experiences having lived on a 40-foot sailboat on the US West Coast for a bit more than 10-years, although there's plenty of learning to share from the experience. Although there may be something to be considered in the possibility of a 'global coastal event', there's a lot to be had from such a lifestyle...enough so that I could write a longish book on the topic, so pardon this week's report being a bit longish compared to most. Why, the subject of placards alone covers plenty of territory; everything from the sign that "Marriages performed by the Captain are only valid for this weekend" to the more serious (and required on vessels >40') MARPOL compliance placard not to mention the various oil pollution and disposal plaques. So pull up a long glass, me hearty - we're going boating, arghhh. Like other big decisions in life, it's a matter of trade-offs. Hate boating? See the earthquake discussion toward the end...

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January 18, 2009

There's something that's been bugging me ever since my friend The Bond Dude reminded me of it. What he said was that over a long enough period of history, if you have two different rates of return, the higher yield will always swamp the lower yield. Each one dollar of face value on a 10% bond over 20-years compounds out to $6.725 while a 9% rate comes in at just $5.604 per dollar of face value. As you can see, that measly one-tenth of one percent may not sound like much at the time the bonds are issued, but run out over 20-years, it's a huge 20% difference in yield. OK, nothing profound to think about yet, right? Ah, but let's now apply that little compounding trick the question of how humans have lost control of governance to corporations. A little exploration of tax rate differentials suggests we will all, sooner than later, be working for the 'company store'. Sorry, no harm intended, especially if you work in one of those 'in process of being nationalized' banks, it's just that's how the numbers come out. You're just going first.

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January 11, 2009

Remember the talk about how an early test of the Obama presidency was expected early on? Those comments which 'came and went' during the presidential campaign might now materialize in real-time later this month. So, in order not to be caught flat-footed by possible future events, we mix up the latest outputs from the predictive linguistics project, dump in a handful of high tech Land Warrioring suitable for a Tom Clancy novel, and then season it with just a spritz of 'collision of civilizations' to come up with a contingency planning framework for a late January 'international crisis' which could become the modern day analog of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Details are for subscribers only, but even for non-subscribers, the personal action points might be: That high gas mileage car may turn out to be a good idea, if indeed Camelot 2 meets Missile Crisis 2 in the waters between Jazireh-ye Qeshm and a little island names Abu Musa.

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January 4, 2009

Denial is powerful stuff, so our next task is to blast through some common misconceptions about how closely we are rhyming with events of the (First) Depression and other economic watershed events. I refer to the study of cycles - the periodic waxing and waning of human events that may be driven by, or causative of change. It's the topic "Nobody wants to talk about" in mainstream academics. Using cycle studies, we might speculate about the date a coming World War. Or, we may be able to see some repetition in patterns of malinvestment by 'common folks' in stocks and bonds over innovation cycles. It all adds up to a viable alternative to "pure market dynamics" as those focused hypnotically on quantitative analysis would otherwise have policymakers believe. Invention and innovation, not the application of formulaic obscura, is what creates your future. Be warned that the trance of formulas and symbols is not about your prosperity....

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December 28, 2008

The little ebook I wrote called "How to Live on $10,000 a year...or less!" has been incredibly successful. No, it hasn't been stocked by Amazon, nor has it been picked up by a major publishing house. But it's been successful by the number of lives it has changed & improved; things publishers and retailers may give lip service to, but when comes right down to brass tacks in publishing, everyone's got to make a buck, and that's cool. I'm undeterred from my personal mission, however, which is to open people's heads a bit, give them new ways of looking at old problems, and above all remind people that the only wealth that survives death is the bank vault of riches between your ears. If that vault is empty, then Life hasn't been properly lived. So over the course of the coming month or two, we'll step back far enough from the theoretical trading and investment side of Peoplenomics to address the nitty-gritty of "Whatcha gonna do when?" Because that "When" is getting really damned close now.

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December 21, 2008

Every year about this time, at least since 2000, I've made it a practice to issue an 'annual forecast' in order that to have a set of expectations against which investment decisions can be benchmarked. To accomplish this, I've used numerous methods in the past include nonlinear trend projection, basic econometric modeling, and even to some extent predictive linguistics. But this year, due to the special nature of the times just ahead I've worked up a new 'graphic modeling' approach that avoids the heavy-duty math and is quite intuitive. Hopefully, you'll enjoy the approach but as we get into it, you'll discover, as I did while doing the research, that the results give a nearly dire outlook for 2009. Not unsurvivable, at least for most, but at the same time it's clear in this modeling exercise that the Depression of the 1930's could look like a 'walk in the park' compared to what's coming.

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