Business Model Threat Analysis

What is a business model?

What constitutes a threat to a business model?

And why would you give a rip?

Seems a reasonable set of questions – the answers just ahead as soon as a few headline, the ChartPack, and the coffee is done.

The good news?

Business model (threats) are more than just an investment tool.  They can also save your career from long-term disaster.

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Investing: Step-by-Step for Millennials

A beginner’s Guide today.  How much to get started, how to pick an online brokerage, and a ton more including how to make – and read – your own charts.

One of our readers – a Millennial at that – asked if I could whip up such a simple, step-by-step guide to how to invest in the stock market. Something for newbies.

Since I wrote the Millennial’s Missing Manual, and that eBook – which will be on Amazon any minute – is all about processes and how you can do anything ever done by another human (if you can find their recipes), why not apply the same thing to the stock market?

Easy-peasy, right?

So this morning we will dispense with the headlines – since you can find the flow of news updated every few minutes from our news/RSS feed page over here, we will combine everything about investing into a series of really easy-to-follow steps.  There is also a reading list – the mechanical part is simple.  The strategies is where the gold is buried.

Who knows?  Maybe even my own Gen-x kids will find it worth reading…

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Disappearing Investment Choices

This morning, since it’s a holiday weekend and all, we will focus on the charts and outlooks for next week’s action which will very much hinge on military developments between now and the Monday open.

We will also consider the problem of ‘disappearing investment options.”  Sure, things like real estate are still selling, but to the long term, strategic investor, there’s always got to be an exit strategy in view.

And right now, some of those are going mirage-like.

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Times of Economic Self-Preservation

We dispense with all the usual formatics this morning to deal with the One Question that Matters.

What’s the right move at this precise time and place that a person trying to preserve their retirement accounts and such MIGHT consider given where we are in the Economic Long Wave?

It’s a complex question and while we don’t offer financial advice, this morning’s discussion will give you all kinds of things to consider.

Indeed, an  unusual report this morning, but then again, these are definitely unusual times.

As always, I tend to err on the side of caution – and freely admit that by doing so we may sacrifice a few potential gains.  But it all comes down to what your age is and how much time you have to recover from a major set-back should you get things spectacularly wrong?

Thus, a longish discussion about perspectives and where the Long Wave seems to hold us at present day.

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Come Sit at my Trading Platform

I  rocked it today.  Not a big win, but this time I conscientiously journaled every move, since a number of subscribers have asked about my thinking processes between the Peoplenomics Oscillator updates at mid week and on weekends.

You asked….so here’s how we rolled. 

Thought by thought.

Blew out of my long position, if even for 20 hours, when an urge to exit hit me shortly after the open on Monday.

This afternoon, the journal of the thinking process  – on the off chance you might find it useful and/or interesting…

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Top In? And How Does Depression II Roll?

A couple of big items on the agenda this morning.  In the ChartPack section we work through what some of the initial Syria results are in terms of market impacts.

Then, in the Focus piece, we consider how homes and car prices might fare in the opening couple of years of a Second Depression when it shows up.

Headlines?  Only a few.  Coffee?  Oh, heavens yes.  Bean up and let’s “hoptoit.”

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Thinking the Unthinkable Day

We have much to ponder:  New jobs report.  A winner.  Meanwhile, a series of Federal Reserve working papers has us considering the kind of future the Fed is looking at.  Then there’s more action by North Korea and a migration path to war with China if we screw the pooch in negotiations.

But mainly, we’re watching the markets and the rhyme off the 1920’s and waiting for the Big Top which must necessarily be set before the Second Depression sets in.  On the way up, we’re happily on our way to adding another significant digit in our trading account.

Unless, that is, we skip it the blow off top and go right to the war that usually follows a global depression.

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Are Federal Reserve Rate Hikes Over?

There are some interesting accounting problems on the horizon for a lot of publicly held companies. 

While they have benefited from the declining interest rate paradigm since 1980, if the bottom is really “in” on rates, any sudden moves could send corporate balance sheets seriously “out of whack” in a heartbeat.

The result of that would be?  Well, let’s just say “Not pretty…”

That said, we have a HUGE development which I’ll explain in the ChartPack section.

No fake news here,  but we do note the date and how a more-than-ample supply is probably available.

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Strategy, Tactics, Words, and Laws

A fair bit on  the plate this morning.  In the Strategy area, we continue our discussion of three books that may provide a useful “look-ahead” reference series for the coming period of history.

Under Tactics we take on the task of trading what may be one more small decline before the market heads up – if indeed that’s what’s in the cards.  Use the “brainamp.xls” spreadsheet on the Master Index page to play along. It’s a locked spreadsheet but the password is there, too.

On “words” a couple of news stories this morning have me appalled with the state of reportorial disrepair in ‘Merica.

And last, but not least, a short discussion of “Where has a Nation of Laws” gone?

A Thermos with 25 ounces of wake-up juice at the ready and a raging thunderstorm outside, what could be better on a stormy Wednesday morning?

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